Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +14 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | MEM -10.2 (+3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.1 (+2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -11.0 (+3.0) | 140.3 (+1.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -9.5 (+4.5) | 140.3 (+1.7) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -9.9 (+4.1) | 140.8 (+1.2) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -9.7 (+4.3) | 142.9 (-0.9) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 15, 2026 | MEM 55 – 53 TEM |
| Feb 9, 2025 | MEM 90 – 82 TEM |
| Jan 17, 2025 | TEM 88 – 81 MEM |
| Feb 9, 2024 | MEM 84 – 77 TEM |
| Feb 12, 2023 | MEM 86 – 77 TEM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MEM | TEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 17-12 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 10-7 |
| Home | 13-2 | 11-3 |
| Away | 5-6 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 66.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 66.4 |
| Massey | 11.2 (#34) | 3.8 (#116) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.48 (#68) | 1.14 (#93) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.27 (#48) | 1.09 (#104) |
| RPI | 0.581 (#47) | 0.536 (#109) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MEM | TEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 40.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 45.8% |
| TOV% | 23.1% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 36.8% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 44.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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