Betting Lines
| Spread | HCU -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HCU +14 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | HCU -4.3 (+9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.7 (+11.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HCU -4.5 (+9.5) | 142.3 (+7.7) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HCU -4.0 (+10.0) | 144.0 (+6.0) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HCU -4.1 (+9.9) | 144.9 (+5.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HCU -3.5 (+10.5) | 143.7 (+6.3) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | HCU 81 – 75 UIW |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UIW 73 – 56 HCU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UIW 74 – 64 HCU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | HCU 81 – 76 UIW |
| Feb 10, 2024 | HCU 86 – 83 UIW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HCU | UIW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-18 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 6-8 | 3-11 |
| Home | 7-6 | 5-10 |
| Away | 3-8 | 1-11 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 65.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.4 | 77.7 |
| Massey | -13.4 (#345) | -14.9 (#350) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.38 (#340) | -2.75 (#347) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.81 (#336) | -3.04 (#344) |
| RPI | 0.406 (#333) | 0.416 (#321) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HCU | UIW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 29.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 22.6% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 22.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.5% | 56.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.0% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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