Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | NIU +475 BUF -700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUF +11 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | BUF -10.6 (-0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.2 (+0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUF -9.0 (-2.0) | 151.0 (-4.0) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -8.9 (-2.1) | 149.4 (-2.4) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -8.6 (-2.4) | 151.0 (-4.0) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUF -8.4 (-2.6) | 149.5 (-2.5) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | NIU 72 – 70 BUF |
| Dec 31, 2025 | BUF 81 – 67 NIU |
| Feb 12, 2025 | BUF 73 – 67 NIU |
| Mar 9, 2024 | NIU 78 – 68 BUF |
| Feb 14, 2024 | NIU 72 – 68 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIU | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-21 | 19-11 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 13-6 |
| Home | 3-8 | 9-3 |
| Away | 6-11 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | W1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.1 | 78.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 73.6 |
| Massey | -8.9 (#308) | 4.4 (#110) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.33 (#281) | 0.62 (#125) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.64 (#281) | 0.81 (#120) |
| RPI | 0.439 (#288) | 0.553 (#75) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIU | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 42.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 14.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 24.8% | 37.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.5% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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