Betting Lines
| Spread | NAU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IDST +4 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | NAU -4.8 (-8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.4 (+6.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAU -1.9 (-5.9) | 131.8 (+4.2) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAU -3.6 (-7.6) | 134.0 (+2.0) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NAU -3.6 (-7.6) | 134.5 (+1.5) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAU -3.5 (-7.5) | 135.2 (+0.8) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | IDST 73 – 65 NAU |
| Feb 6, 2026 | NAU 79 – 73 IDST |
| Jan 11, 2026 | IDST 81 – 79 NAU |
| Mar 4, 2025 | NAU 82 – 79 IDST |
| Jan 3, 2025 | IDST 72 – 67 NAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAU | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 7-23 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 5-15 |
| Home | 5-10 | 5-8 |
| Away | 3-11 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L8 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.4 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 72.0 |
| Massey | -11.1 (#327) | -13.1 (#343) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.71 (#307) | -2.31 (#337) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.13 (#312) | -2.35 (#322) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#294) | 0.374 (#351) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAU | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.8% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 76.3% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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