Betting Lines
| Spread | SELA -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SELA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SELA +5 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | NOLA -0.6 (+5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.8 (+4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SELA -0.9 (+4.1) | 159.6 (+3.4) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NOLA -1.1 (+6.1) | 158.2 (+4.8) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NOLA -0.3 (+5.3) | 159.6 (+3.4) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NOLA -0.3 (+5.3) | 160.0 (+3.0) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | SELA 82 – 78 NOLA |
| Jan 13, 2026 | NOLA 79 – 76 SELA |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SELA 76 – 68 NOLA |
| Jan 11, 2025 | SELA 91 – 71 NOLA |
| Mar 10, 2024 | NOLA 78 – 66 SELA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SELA | NOLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 10-4 | 10-4 |
| Home | 10-1 | 12-2 |
| Away | 5-11 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 76.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.1 | 76.7 |
| Massey | -7.4 (#293) | -4.0 (#236) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.98 (#250) | -0.61 (#226) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.39 (#269) | -0.69 (#222) |
| RPI | 0.495 (#188) | 0.481 (#212) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SELA | NOLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 24.9% |
| FT Rate | 28.9% | 32.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 65.7% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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