Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +7 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | UCSB -1.7 (-5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.8 (+8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -1.0 (-6.0) | 132.7 (+12.3) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -1.1 (-5.9) | 137.2 (+7.8) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -0.9 (-6.1) | 137.8 (+7.2) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCD -0.1 (-7.1) | 135.4 (+9.6) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | UCD 79 – 73 UCSB |
| Feb 6, 2026 | UCD 85 – 75 UCSB |
| Jan 9, 2026 | UCD 93 – 86 UCSB |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UCD 64 – 60 UCSB |
| Dec 8, 2024 | UCD 71 – 60 UCSB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-11 | 17-11 |
| Conference | 5-6 | 8-5 |
| Home | 7-5 | 11-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.0 | 65.8 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#221) | 1.8 (#137) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.17 (#195) | -0.69 (#238) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.44 (#205) | -0.51 (#211) |
| RPI | 0.473 (#230) | 0.438 (#297) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.0% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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