Betting Lines
| Spread | STMN -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Over |
| Money | STMN -145 DEN +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STMN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEN +11 | 171 | Lost |
| Massey | STMN -2.6 (-13.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.0 (+24.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STMN -4.1 (-15.1) | 147.0 (+24.0) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STMN -2.3 (-13.3) | 147.8 (+23.2) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | STMN -2.4 (-13.4) | 147.8 (+23.2) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STMN -2.2 (-13.2) | 148.8 (+22.2) | 58% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | DEN 82 – 80 STMN |
| Jan 4, 2026 | STMN 92 – 88 DEN |
| Mar 7, 2025 | STMN 80 – 62 DEN |
| Feb 8, 2025 | STMN 79 – 76 DEN |
| Jan 19, 2025 | STMN 74 – 62 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STMN | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-20 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 7-11 |
| Home | 5-8 | 6-7 |
| Away | 3-12 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.2 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -8.3 (#302) | -8.2 (#300) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.82 (#317) | -1.81 (#315) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.95 (#301) | -2.13 (#309) |
| RPI | 0.428 (#308) | 0.411 (#328) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STMN | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 28.4 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 12.5% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 20.0% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 17.5% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.4% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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