Just tell me where it hurts and I'll tell you who to call. "Quinn the Eskimo" - Bob Dylan
The Super Pit · February 25, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread UNT -21.0 Home covered
O/U 121.5 Over
Model Predictions
Spread Total UNT win
Actual UNT +24 146 Won
Massey UNT -25.3 (-1.3) — —
Massey Totals — 117.0 (+29.0) —
Bradley-Terry — — 99% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 100% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ UNT -22.3 (+1.7) 122.9 (+23.1) 90% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML UNT -22.9 (+1.1) 129.2 (+16.8) 91% ✓
Baseline ML UNT -25.6 (-1.6) 128.6 (+17.4) 91% ✓
Baseline Plus ML UNT -25.5 (-1.5) 126.8 (+19.2) 91% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 28, 2022 UNT 63 – 54 USM
Feb 13, 2021 UNT 68 – 56 USM
Feb 13, 2021 UNT 65 – 49 USM

Game Analysis

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