Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -6.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OSU +3 | 169 | Lost |
| Massey | ILL -5.1 (-8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.4 (+24.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -5.2 (-8.2) | 141.9 (+27.1) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -5.5 (-8.5) | 143.9 (+25.1) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -5.5 (-8.5) | 143.2 (+25.8) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -5.7 (-8.7) | 142.7 (+26.3) | 75% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 10, 2025 | ILL 88 – 80 OSU |
| Feb 2, 2025 | ILL 87 – 79 OSU |
| Mar 15, 2024 | ILL 77 – 74 OSU |
| Jan 31, 2024 | ILL 87 – 75 OSU |
| Feb 26, 2023 | OSU 72 – 60 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | OSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 12-8 |
| Home | 13-3 | 13-3 |
| Away | 7-4 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.4 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 67.7 |
| Massey | 15.7 (#16) | 13.4 (#21) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.72 (#20) | 2.53 (#23) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.22 (#19) | 3.19 (#20) |
| RPI | 0.603 (#26) | 0.606 (#21) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | OSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 46.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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