Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -10.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +30 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | WIN -9.2 (+20.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.2 (-5.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -12.4 (+17.6) | 146.6 (+1.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -10.3 (+19.7) | 148.7 (-0.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -9.7 (+20.3) | 150.6 (-2.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -9.7 (+20.3) | 150.5 (-2.5) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | WIN 68 – 64 UPST |
| Jan 10, 2026 | WIN 71 – 50 UPST |
| Feb 8, 2025 | WIN 105 – 95 UPST |
| Jan 2, 2025 | WIN 95 – 76 UPST |
| Feb 24, 2024 | WIN 83 – 74 UPST |
Game Analysis
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