Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -12.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +14 | 106 | Lost |
| Massey | SMC -12.4 (-1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.2 (-17.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -12.4 (-1.6) | 130.9 (-24.9) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -11.4 (-2.6) | 134.0 (-28.0) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -12.9 (-1.1) | 134.4 (-28.4) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -11.7 (-2.3) | 132.9 (-26.9) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | SMC 87 – 60 USD |
| Jan 12, 2025 | SMC 103 – 56 USD |
| Feb 25, 2024 | SMC 88 – 62 USD |
| Jan 5, 2024 | SMC 81 – 70 USD |
| Feb 17, 2023 | SMC 62 – 59 USD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USD | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 12-3 |
| Home | 8-6 | 16-0 |
| Away | 4-8 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.9 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 61.3 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#219) | 12.5 (#24) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.09 (#170) | 2.53 (#24) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.21 (#155) | 2.89 (#29) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#171) | 0.639 (#5) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USD | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 77.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 17.2% |
Game Analysis
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