I'm not a coward; I've just never been tested. "The Impression That I Get" - The Mighty Mighty Bosstones
← All models

Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

← Prev day Next day →
101–26 on winners spread MAE 8.2 127 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
USC @ Purdue +11.7 147.1 87% 72–90 ✓
VCU @ Dayton -1.1 139.5 45% 73–68 ✓
Princeton @ Pennsylvania -6.2 145.7 24% 61–59 ✓
St. John's @ UConn +1.0 140.9 54% 68–62 ✗
San José State @ Boise State +12.3 143.8 87% 52–79 ✓
Saint Louis @ Saint Joseph's +5.3 139.0 69% 63–76 ✓
Utah State @ Fresno State -14.8 155.8 13% 89–81 ✓
Tennessee @ Oklahoma -3.1 135.6 37% 70–52 ✓
TCU @ Iowa State +12.2 139.3 87% 52–82 ✓
Oregon @ Michigan State +6.7 144.6 76% 74–86 ✓
South Carolina @ Kentucky +12.1 149.7 86% 57–80 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Tulsa -6.3 152.4 26% 79–55 ✓
Richmond @ Davidson +8.6 137.8 82% 60–71 ✓
Boston University @ Holy Cross +1.4 131.6 58% 52–72 ✓
Seton Hall @ Georgetown +10.3 131.7 86% 46–60 ✓
Wisconsin @ Iowa -3.2 156.3 38% 74–63 ✓
Michigan @ Indiana -2.6 148.8 38% 70–67 ✓
Troy @ Miami (OH) +0.9 140.8 56% 62–69 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Western Michigan +0.6 145.4 52% 83–57 ✗
Virginia Tech @ Notre Dame +7.2 136.8 76% 65–63 ✗
Bucknell @ Army +0.3 146.0 53% 110–116 ✓
Navy @ Lafayette +1.3 136.1 57% 51–61 ✓
Wagner @ Fairleigh Dickinson +3.7 129.2 66% 58–69 ✓
NJIT @ New Hampshire +0.2 135.9 47% 69–80 ✓
Youngstown State @ Detroit Mercy -2.9 136.7 38% 87–72 ✓
Lipscomb @ Queens University -2.2 142.0 41% 94–81 ✓
Texas @ Vanderbilt +1.9 150.2 60% 78–86 ✓
The Citadel @ VMI +10.2 138.8 86% 70–82 ✓
Kansas @ Kansas State -3.4 142.5 34% 73–81 ✗
Southern Miss @ Ball State +2.3 144.2 61% 76–77 ✓
South Alabama @ Akron +8.1 142.3 77% 67–80 ✓
Old Dominion @ Eastern Michigan +2.6 141.7 63% 70–76 ✓
Louisiana @ Northern Illinois +0.3 141.0 44% 66–64 ✗
James Madison @ Toledo +0.9 148.7 53% 69–72 ✓
Georgia State @ Buffalo -1.9 154.5 40% 80–75 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Bowling Green +3.2 138.5 65% 53–67 ✓
Arkansas State @ Kent State +0.2 133.6 51% 75–76 ✓
App State @ Ohio +2.4 137.4 60% 72–59 ✗
Winthrop @ South Carolina Upstate -8.0 159.9 22% 105–95 ✓
Charleston Southern @ Gardner-Webb +5.2 149.2 70% 79–72 ✗
Saint Peter's @ Manhattan +5.0 133.9 71% 83–84 ✓
UCF @ Baylor +11.2 161.0 86% 76–91 ✓
Miami @ Louisville +17.6 156.7 90% 78–88 ✓
UIC @ Southern Illinois +0.4 152.4 53% 67–79 ✓
Stonehill @ Long Island University +0.8 130.6 56% 59–62 ✓
American University @ Lehigh +1.7 138.3 58% 78–75 ✗
Loyola Maryland @ Colgate +4.0 139.1 66% 68–82 ✓
Brown @ Columbia +2.0 151.0 62% 72–74 ✓
Yale @ Cornell -1.7 156.0 43% 103–88 ✓
Saint Francis @ Chicago State -2.4 137.2 36% 81–69 ✓
Harvard @ Dartmouth +2.2 145.7 63% 56–76 ✓
UMBC @ Maine +7.1 148.4 79% 50–73 ✓
Bryant @ Binghamton -4.8 147.0 32% 78–71 ✓
Robert Morris @ Northern Kentucky -1.3 141.1 45% 81–76 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Drexel -0.4 136.3 47% 81–79 ✓
William & Mary @ Delaware +0.3 160.3 53% 64–74 ✓
North Alabama @ West Georgia -10.1 146.3 17% 78–61 ✓
North Dakota State @ Omaha -1.0 150.3 48% 74–85 ✗
Wofford @ Mercer +0.1 147.9 52% 77–66 ✗
Niagara @ Quinnipiac +11.1 140.3 85% 76–75 ✗
Siena @ Rider -2.1 139.3 40% 59–61 ✗
Little Rock @ Morehead State -3.2 127.6 35% 76–62 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Florida International -3.4 138.4 33% 82–71 ✓
Marquette @ Creighton +1.9 142.2 59% 67–77 ✓
Radford @ Longwood +2.9 144.3 65% 71–69 ✗
Tulane @ North Texas +8.4 127.2 80% 66–76 ✓
Le Moyne @ Mercyhurst +3.8 145.1 67% 78–82 ✓
Providence @ Butler +5.9 143.2 73% 81–82 ✓
Milwaukee @ Cleveland State +2.0 140.0 61% 60–77 ✓
Canisius @ Merrimack +13.1 131.7 87% 51–69 ✓
Boston College @ Syracuse +7.1 147.1 79% 86–95 ✓
Texas A&M @ Missouri +4.0 141.4 69% 67–64 ✗
Rice @ Charlotte -1.0 140.8 47% 75–78 ✗
Florida @ Auburn +9.1 155.1 81% 90–81 ✗
Houston @ Colorado -13.1 132.2 15% 69–59 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Howard +1.5 157.1 59% 78–82 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Nicholls +10.5 139.1 86% 65–81 ✓
Pittsburgh @ North Carolina +3.6 153.2 67% 66–67 ✓
Rhode Island @ George Mason +8.5 136.2 81% 67–82 ✓
Murray State @ Valparaiso +0.2 144.2 53% 74–56 ✗
UNLV @ Wyoming +0.4 131.4 51% 68–57 ✗
New Mexico @ Air Force -16.1 144.7 13% 88–53 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Jackson State +18.7 138.6 90% 44–92 ✓
Penn State @ UCLA +7.9 142.2 80% 54–78 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Alcorn State +11.7 144.1 87% 60–79 ✓
Hampton @ Northeastern +6.0 140.2 75% 84–75 ✗
Towson @ Monmouth -3.4 136.7 33% 73–67 ✓
Stony Brook @ Hofstra +10.3 135.3 85% 80–75 ✗
Eastern Kentucky @ Stetson -7.7 154.2 22% 83–58 ✓
Tarleton State @ Utah Valley +11.8 134.6 87% 56–81 ✓
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ Denver -9.7 149.0 16% 79–76 ✓
Western Carolina @ UNC Greensboro +13.6 138.1 89% 70–74 ✓
Samford @ East Tennessee State +0.2 145.1 50% 59–66 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Tennessee Tech +5.6 138.1 73% 54–59 ✓
Sam Houston @ Liberty +12.1 141.2 88% 61–64 ✓
Grambling @ Alabama State +5.0 135.1 69% 77–67 ✗
New Orleans @ Houston Christian +8.8 143.7 81% 68–81 ✓
Furman @ Chattanooga +4.6 146.1 72% 72–85 ✓
Western Illinois @ UT Martin +7.3 136.7 75% 70–81 ✓
Lindenwood @ Tennessee State +5.5 146.1 75% 76–84 ✓
Texas State @ Central Michigan +2.9 143.4 62% 70–85 ✓
Utah @ West Virginia +6.3 131.3 74% 61–72 ✓
Wake Forest @ California -0.7 138.2 44% 76–66 ✓
Missouri State @ Belmont +7.4 149.3 79% 68–85 ✓
Southern @ Alabama A&M -10.6 145.7 16% 81–68 ✓
Northwestern State @ McNeese +12.4 133.7 88% 50–65 ✓
Sacramento State @ Idaho +8.3 142.6 80% 76–78 ✓
Portland State @ Eastern Washington +0.4 143.1 51% 67–72 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ North Florida -1.3 157.9 49% 84–70 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Austin Peay +6.6 138.8 75% 67–90 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Kennesaw State +1.4 143.3 55% 76–75 ✗
Western Kentucky @ Jacksonville State +3.7 142.1 72% 83–85 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Virginia +3.1 135.4 67% 61–75 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Prairie View A&M -4.2 145.8 27% 85–82 ✓
Mississippi State @ Georgia +3.2 143.6 65% 76–75 ✗
Illinois @ Minnesota -8.0 143.9 24% 95–74 ✓
BYU @ Cincinnati +0.8 140.6 52% 66–84 ✓
Florida A&M @ Texas Southern +4.0 143.2 67% 66–64 ✗
Loyola Chicago @ Duquesne +0.7 130.8 51% 56–69 ✓
Indiana State @ Drake +12.5 135.9 87% 81–85 ✓
Illinois State @ Northern Iowa +5.6 140.9 74% 65–68 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Stephen F. Austin -2.3 136.7 41% 64–78 ✗
SE Louisiana @ Incarnate Word -0.3 141.1 48% 71–66 ✓
Elon @ Charleston +3.3 143.1 69% 83–88 ✓
Pepperdine @ Washington State +10.5 149.8 84% 86–87 ✓
North Dakota @ Kansas City +3.7 142.3 66% 69–80 ✓
Duke @ Clemson -4.7 139.0 26% 71–77 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.