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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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41–12 on winners spread MAE 9.3 53 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Maryland @ Ohio State	+2.3	149.3	60%	70–73	✓
Temple @ South Florida	+0.3	149.1	51%	91–100	✓
Long Island University @ Wagner	-0.7	125.6	44%	60–47	✓
Le Moyne @ Saint Francis	+4.4	145.2	68%	78–86	✓
Mercyhurst @ Chicago State	-0.7	133.5	43%	78–85	✗
UMBC @ New Hampshire	-5.9	150.3	26%	78–79	✗
Youngstown State @ Oakland	+3.8	134.2	67%	84–75	✗
Elon @ Campbell	+2.2	135.2	63%	58–76	✓
Hampton @ Monmouth	+1.1	142.6	58%	63–68	✓
William & Mary @ Drexel	+1.6	144.3	60%	66–86	✓
Northeastern @ Hofstra	+2.4	133.7	63%	77–68	✗
Jacksonville @ Stetson	-8.9	146.6	17%	74–65	✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Florida Gulf Coast	+6.2	146.4	75%	92–74	✗
Canisius @ Quinnipiac	+14.1	147.6	89%	71–89	✓
Niagara @ Merrimack	+8.6	129.4	81%	59–64	✓
Marist @ Fairfield	-6.4	134.9	24%	56–59	✗
Rider @ Sacred Heart	+3.9	141.6	67%	77–89	✓
Iona @ Mount St. Mary's	+3.6	139.9	65%	70–67	✗
Saint Peter's @ Siena	+4.5	129.3	65%	63–77	✓
Middle Tennessee @ Jacksonville State	+2.4	137.7	67%	63–77	✓
Western Kentucky @ Kennesaw State	+1.4	148.0	57%	69–76	✓
Sam Houston @ Florida International	+0.5	141.7	51%	82–85	✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Morehead State	-0.5	137.5	51%	80–51	✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Central Connecticut	+11.3	134.5	85%	66–87	✓
Montana State @ Northern Arizona	+0.3	141.1	50%	64–69	✓
Montana @ Northern Colorado	+5.4	152.9	76%	86–78	✗
Bellarmine @ North Florida	+10.8	162.2	86%	88–95	✓
UT Arlington @ Utah Valley	+6.7	145.9	78%	73–94	✓
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ South Dakota State	+3.0	153.3	66%	86–102	✓
North Dakota State @ Kansas City	-4.7	139.3	30%	78–72	✓
North Dakota @ Omaha	+6.4	156.2	77%	77–80	✓
Western Illinois @ Tennessee State	+8.6	143.5	82%	69–87	✓
Louisiana Tech @ Liberty	+6.0	134.2	74%	53–77	✓
Little Rock @ Southern Indiana	-3.6	130.4	35%	74–56	✓
Gardner-Webb @ UNC Asheville	+6.0	152.3	76%	70–78	✓
Portland State @ Idaho	-0.2	147.3	49%	76–69	✓
Sacramento State @ Eastern Washington	+8.5	133.8	80%	80–83	✓
Loyola Marymount @ Gonzaga	+16.4	149.3	90%	53–73	✓
Saint Mary's @ San Francisco	-0.9	131.8	45%	64–65	✗
Abilene Christian @ Utah Tech	+0.5	137.4	53%	86–72	✗
South Dakota @ Denver	-1.8	159.3	40%	86–79	✓
Lindenwood @ UT Martin	+4.0	141.4	68%	52–51	✗
UC Santa Barbara @ Cal State Bakersfield	-2.1	140.4	42%	81–75	✓
UC Riverside @ UC San Diego	+13.0	142.5	87%	71–91	✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Cal State Northridge	+14.4	148.1	88%	63–82	✓
Hawai'i @ Cal Poly	+0.1	151.5	50%	63–79	✓
UC Davis @ Long Beach State	-3.5	132.7	31%	73–65	✓
San Diego @ Pacific	+2.8	142.1	64%	69–71	✓
Santa Clara @ Portland	-14.3	155.3	14%	97–50	✓
Tarleton State @ Seattle U	+8.3	130.0	83%	54–91	✓
Southern Utah @ California Baptist	+9.5	137.9	83%	60–57	✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Tennessee Tech	-0.3	138.0	49%	75–58	✓
Washington State @ Oregon State	+6.0	150.3	74%	74–82	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.