All my failings exposed, gets a taste in my mouth as desperation takes hold "Love Will Tear Us Apart" - Joy Division
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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37–18 on winners spread MAE 9.3 55 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Duke @ Syracuse -15.3 142.5 15% 83–54 ✓
Missouri @ Tennessee +7.4 130.9 75% 81–85 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Presbyterian +8.8 148.0 83% 64–75 ✓
High Point @ Radford -2.3 144.0 40% 78–75 ✓
Winthrop @ Charleston Southern -1.5 154.0 45% 83–65 ✓
Cincinnati @ UCF +2.5 142.8 62% 93–83 ✗
Rice @ East Carolina +4.0 140.8 68% 73–60 ✗
Louisville @ Boston College -14.2 148.2 14% 84–58 ✓
George Mason @ George Washington -3.1 131.7 38% 53–50 ✓
Rhode Island @ Fordham -1.1 154.0 47% 79–80 ✗
Duquesne @ Richmond -2.3 131.2 40% 68–73 ✗
Valparaiso @ Indiana State +2.4 154.6 63% 62–80 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Missouri State -4.2 136.2 30% 66–61 ✓
Navy @ Boston University +0.3 131.4 51% 65–87 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Lafayette +3.6 138.1 65% 71–58 ✗
American University @ Bucknell +2.0 141.1 58% 49–71 ✓
South Alabama @ Coastal Carolina -7.8 130.0 20% 84–59 ✓
UL Monroe @ Georgia State +5.0 144.6 70% 64–97 ✓
Texas State @ Old Dominion -2.8 142.4 39% 64–75 ✗
Troy @ James Madison +0.4 135.2 54% 61–64 ✓
Louisiana @ Georgia Southern +4.9 142.4 69% 82–83 ✓
Cleveland State @ Northern Kentucky -3.5 134.2 33% 75–85 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Robert Morris +11.4 138.5 87% 56–71 ✓
Wright State @ Purdue Fort Wayne +4.9 156.2 72% 64–87 ✓
Lipscomb @ West Georgia -12.2 141.6 14% 76–67 ✓
Chattanooga @ Wofford +2.0 143.1 61% 79–70 ✗
Western Carolina @ Furman +14.1 142.9 89% 75–84 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ The Citadel -14.7 132.8 12% 76–61 ✓
Queens University @ Central Arkansas -6.5 143.7 26% 63–47 ✓
Mercer @ Samford +10.2 154.5 86% 79–100 ✓
Tulsa @ Memphis +16.9 145.8 91% 71–83 ✓
West Virginia @ TCU -1.0 129.2 44% 60–65 ✗
Tulane @ UTSA +0.7 143.7 54% 61–60 ✗
Southern Illinois @ Evansville -0.1 139.6 53% 68–59 ✓
Illinois State @ UIC +3.2 151.3 69% 81–79 ✗
North Alabama @ Austin Peay -5.2 145.6 32% 74–64 ✓
Illinois @ Rutgers -4.7 156.6 30% 73–82 ✗
Creighton @ Providence -3.1 138.2 36% 80–69 ✓
Colorado @ Utah +6.1 140.4 73% 59–72 ✓
SMU @ Virginia Tech -8.1 147.0 22% 81–75 ✓
Belmont @ Bradley +7.1 155.1 78% 80–77 ✗
Villanova @ DePaul -2.1 142.4 43% 59–49 ✓
Arkansas State @ Marshall -3.1 144.5 32% 72–77 ✗
Arkansas @ Texas +5.5 141.4 72% 78–70 ✗
LSU @ Georgia +7.2 141.5 74% 62–81 ✓
Colorado State @ New Mexico +8.3 147.3 81% 65–87 ✓
Nebraska @ Washington -1.6 141.4 46% 86–72 ✓
NC State @ California +1.9 139.0 60% 62–74 ✓
Wake Forest @ Stanford +3.2 135.4 65% 79–73 ✗
NJIT @ Maine +12.0 132.1 87% 74–78 ✓
UAlbany @ Bryant +10.8 153.4 83% 68–63 ✗
North Carolina A&T @ Charleston +11.6 155.5 87% 63–66 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Binghamton -1.9 147.2 44% 54–66 ✗
UNC Wilmington @ Delaware -4.7 152.7 29% 77–67 ✓
Towson @ Stony Brook -7.5 132.0 20% 66–59 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.