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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
30–7 on winners
spread MAE 7.1
37 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+12.3 | 155.3 | 87% | 75–86 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.7 | 153.1 | 29% | 90–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.1 | 156.8 | 62% | 84–98 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.9 | 142.9 | 42% | 66–58 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.9 | 142.0 | 68% | 60–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.4 | 146.1 | 53% | 73–71 | ✗ |
|
|
+15.8 | 141.2 | 89% | 66–96 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.5 | 144.1 | 78% | 63–69 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.3 | 131.5 | 25% | 55–45 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.7 | 142.3 | 80% | 69–61 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.9 | 147.9 | 82% | 69–94 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.2 | 146.5 | 72% | 77–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.1 | 145.2 | 48% | 76–70 | ✗ |
|
|
+11.2 | 158.7 | 88% | 74–87 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.2 | 154.1 | 88% | 73–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+19.2 | 135.4 | 91% | 63–72 | ✓ |
|
|
-8.1 | 137.0 | 21% | 71–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.9 | 137.3 | 76% | 69–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.1 | 132.3 | 77% | 41–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.5 | 155.6 | 88% | 70–98 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.7 | 144.2 | 76% | 59–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.6 | 152.0 | 85% | 64–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.3 | 140.5 | 87% | 89–86 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.0 | 132.4 | 46% | 53–77 | ✗ |
|
|
-10.8 | 133.0 | 15% | 74–60 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.0 | 142.9 | 66% | 75–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.2 | 141.9 | 65% | 61–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.1 | 138.7 | 69% | 71–70 | ✗ |
|
|
-3.0 | 146.4 | 37% | 94–91 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.5 | 154.6 | 56% | 85–74 | ✗ |
|
|
-3.7 | 139.0 | 37% | 71–62 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.4 | 140.3 | 64% | 65–68 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.3 | 137.9 | 36% | 62–55 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.9 | 150.8 | 77% | 76–80 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.3 | 136.6 | 30% | 84–54 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.9 | 131.6 | 78% | 58–60 | ✓ |
|
|
-8.2 | 149.3 | 20% | 84–80 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.