Betting Lines
| Spread | MISS -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | MISS -215 UK +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MISS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MISS +14 | 182 | Won |
| Massey | MISS -0.8 (+13.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.1 (+20.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MISS -3.1 (+10.9) | 156.8 (+25.2) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MISS -3.0 (+11.0) | 157.3 (+24.7) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MISS -3.0 (+11.0) | 157.3 (+24.7) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MISS -2.2 (+11.8) | 155.6 (+26.4) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | UK 72 – 63 MISS |
| Feb 14, 2024 | UK 75 – 63 MISS |
| Feb 1, 2023 | UK 75 – 66 MISS |
| Mar 2, 2022 | UK 83 – 72 MISS |
| Mar 3, 2021 | MISS 70 – 62 UK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MISS | UK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-3 | 15-3 |
| Away | 5-6 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.2 | 84.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 77.2 |
| Massey | 15.9 (#26) | 18.3 (#16) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.26 (#10) | 3.15 (#13) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.47 (#6) | 3.84 (#16) |
| RPI | 0.628 (#16) | 0.634 (#11) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MISS | UK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 48.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 40.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.66 | 1.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 56.5% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 13.9% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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