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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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15–8 on winners spread MAE 9.0 23 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Virginia @ Pittsburgh	+12.1	136.5	87%	73–57	✗
North Carolina Central @ Norfolk State	+10.7	147.5	87%	78–81	✓
Alabama State @ Florida A&M	+0.4	143.5	54%	67–66	✗
Alabama A&M @ Bethune-Cookman	+11.9	148.7	87%	75–89	✓
Incarnate Word @ McNeese	+15.4	141.9	89%	65–67	✓
Lamar @ SE Louisiana	+2.3	133.4	63%	79–81	✓
Jackson State @ Southern	+8.7	135.8	80%	89–91	✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Northwestern State	+0.7	138.9	55%	63–79	✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ East Texas A&M	-7.1	140.6	24%	78–66	✓
Stephen F. Austin @ New Orleans	-2.3	134.4	38%	88–85	✓
Houston Christian @ Nicholls	+5.7	138.8	74%	67–75	✓
South Carolina State @ Howard	-0.1	151.6	51%	89–66	✓
Morgan State @ Delaware State	+5.0	155.0	72%	82–84	✓
Coppin State @ Maryland Eastern Shore	+2.4	135.0	60%	62–57	✗
Charleston @ William & Mary	-1.0	159.4	43%	75–90	✗
Iowa State @ Kansas	+3.7	149.6	66%	52–69	✓
Alcorn State @ Grambling	+1.0	130.2	54%	60–53	✗
Northern Arizona @ Weber State	-0.4	141.7	48%	73–77	✗
Northern Colorado @ Idaho State	-0.1	147.2	46%	86–72	✓
North Texas @ UAB	-2.5	137.7	40%	61–64	✗
Marquette @ St. John's	+4.1	139.9	70%	64–70	✓
Texas Southern @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff	-10.2	150.6	16%	68–69	✗
Kent State @ Eastern Michigan	-4.6	134.8	32%	70–49	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.