Betting Lines
| Spread | NWST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | NWST -120 RGV +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NWST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NWST +16 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | NWST -0.9 (+15.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (-0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NWST -0.9 (+15.1) | 143.0 (-1.0) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NWST -0.7 (+15.3) | 138.9 (+3.1) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NWST -0.5 (+15.5) | 140.0 (+2.0) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NWST -0.3 (+15.7) | 139.8 (+2.2) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | RGV 74 – 62 NWST |
| Jan 13, 2026 | NWST 64 – 63 RGV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NWST | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 8-12 |
| Home | 9-5 | 12-4 |
| Away | 6-11 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.4 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 76.8 |
| Massey | -5.3 (#250) | -3.0 (#215) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.94 (#254) | -0.55 (#221) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.08 (#242) | -0.76 (#227) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#240) | 0.473 (#228) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NWST | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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