Betting Lines
| Spread | RGV -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | RGV -550 NWST +410 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RGV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RGV +12 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | RGV -12.0 (-0.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.5 (-4.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RGV -9.1 (+2.9) | 137.5 (-1.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RGV -10.2 (+1.8) | 135.4 (+0.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RGV -10.1 (+1.9) | 134.9 (+1.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RGV -10.4 (+1.6) | 136.8 (-0.8) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 13, 2026 | NWST 64 – 63 RGV |
| Feb 4, 2025 | NWST 79 – 63 RGV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RGV | NWST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 14-8 | 8-14 |
| Home | 10-5 | 8-6 |
| Away | 8-8 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 72.9 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#136) | -7.0 (#279) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#180) | -1.59 (#315) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.06 (#161) | -1.98 (#308) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#172) | 0.425 (#325) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RGV | NWST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 30.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 30.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.2% | 26.5% |
Game Analysis
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