Betting Lines
| Spread | RGV -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | NWST +130 RGV -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NWST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NWST +1 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | RGV -3.4 (+4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.4 (-21.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RGV -1.9 (+2.9) | 140.9 (-13.9) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RGV -1.9 (+2.9) | 140.2 (-13.2) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | RGV -2.1 (+3.1) | 141.6 (-14.6) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RGV -2.5 (+3.5) | 141.2 (-14.2) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | RGV 74 – 62 NWST |
| Feb 4, 2025 | NWST 79 – 63 RGV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NWST | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 8-14 | 14-8 |
| Home | 8-6 | 10-5 |
| Away | 2-15 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 70.6 |
| Massey | -8.2 (#285) | -1.4 (#190) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.65 (#307) | -1.19 (#270) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.05 (#298) | -1.20 (#248) |
| RPI | 0.420 (#313) | 0.438 (#281) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NWST | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 28.5 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 32.2% | 17.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.6% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 64.3% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.3% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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