I love it when you call me Big Poppa "Big Poppa" - Notorious B.I.G.
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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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98–29 on winners spread MAE 8.2 127 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
USC @ Purdue +12.5 148.4 87% 72–90 ✓
VCU @ Dayton -2.0 138.4 36% 73–68 ✓
Princeton @ Pennsylvania -6.2 144.8 26% 61–59 ✓
St. John's @ UConn +1.3 142.2 57% 68–62 ✗
San José State @ Boise State +13.3 143.1 87% 52–79 ✓
Saint Louis @ Saint Joseph's +5.6 138.8 71% 63–76 ✓
Utah State @ Fresno State -15.4 154.0 13% 89–81 ✓
Tennessee @ Oklahoma -2.2 138.1 38% 70–52 ✓
TCU @ Iowa State +12.4 140.5 86% 52–82 ✓
Oregon @ Michigan State +6.9 145.8 78% 74–86 ✓
South Carolina @ Kentucky +11.8 149.1 85% 57–80 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Tulsa -5.8 154.3 28% 79–55 ✓
Richmond @ Davidson +9.3 138.7 81% 60–71 ✓
Boston University @ Holy Cross +0.8 130.7 61% 52–72 ✓
Seton Hall @ Georgetown +10.2 131.4 85% 46–60 ✓
Wisconsin @ Iowa -5.3 158.7 29% 74–63 ✓
Michigan @ Indiana -2.4 147.7 40% 70–67 ✓
Troy @ Miami (OH) +0.3 138.9 56% 62–69 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Western Michigan +1.1 147.0 58% 83–57 ✗
Virginia Tech @ Notre Dame +7.3 136.9 77% 65–63 ✗
Bucknell @ Army +0.6 147.4 57% 110–116 ✓
Navy @ Lafayette +0.6 137.7 57% 51–61 ✓
Wagner @ Fairleigh Dickinson +4.2 130.5 67% 58–69 ✓
NJIT @ New Hampshire -0.6 137.7 45% 69–80 ✗
Youngstown State @ Detroit Mercy -3.5 138.8 33% 87–72 ✓
Lipscomb @ Queens University -2.8 144.4 38% 94–81 ✓
Texas @ Vanderbilt +1.9 150.4 61% 78–86 ✓
The Citadel @ VMI +10.1 138.8 86% 70–82 ✓
Kansas @ Kansas State -3.4 144.0 45% 73–81 ✗
Southern Miss @ Ball State +3.7 143.5 60% 76–77 ✓
South Alabama @ Akron +6.9 142.7 78% 67–80 ✓
Old Dominion @ Eastern Michigan +2.5 143.7 64% 70–76 ✓
Louisiana @ Northern Illinois +0.0 143.2 49% 66–64 ✗
James Madison @ Toledo +0.5 149.9 48% 69–72 ✓
Georgia State @ Buffalo -2.1 155.4 42% 80–75 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Bowling Green +3.5 138.5 71% 53–67 ✓
Arkansas State @ Kent State +0.6 136.5 53% 75–76 ✓
App State @ Ohio +2.8 139.6 62% 72–59 ✗
Winthrop @ South Carolina Upstate -9.0 160.5 25% 105–95 ✓
Charleston Southern @ Gardner-Webb +5.5 151.0 72% 79–72 ✗
Saint Peter's @ Manhattan +4.7 132.4 67% 83–84 ✓
UCF @ Baylor +11.4 161.1 86% 76–91 ✓
Miami @ Louisville +19.1 154.1 90% 78–88 ✓
UIC @ Southern Illinois -0.3 154.2 51% 67–79 ✗
Stonehill @ Long Island University +0.5 131.7 57% 59–62 ✓
American University @ Lehigh +1.3 138.4 53% 78–75 ✗
Loyola Maryland @ Colgate +3.5 139.8 65% 68–82 ✓
Brown @ Columbia +3.0 152.2 71% 72–74 ✓
Yale @ Cornell -2.5 155.9 34% 103–88 ✓
Saint Francis @ Chicago State -2.0 138.0 36% 81–69 ✓
Harvard @ Dartmouth +3.2 147.2 65% 56–76 ✓
UMBC @ Maine +7.1 150.0 79% 50–73 ✓
Bryant @ Binghamton -4.2 150.3 28% 78–71 ✓
Robert Morris @ Northern Kentucky -1.3 141.4 39% 81–76 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Drexel -0.7 137.6 39% 81–79 ✓
William & Mary @ Delaware -0.4 159.6 53% 64–74 ✗
North Alabama @ West Georgia -9.5 147.2 18% 78–61 ✓
North Dakota State @ Omaha -0.8 151.2 52% 74–85 ✗
Wofford @ Mercer -0.2 149.3 48% 77–66 ✓
Niagara @ Quinnipiac +10.6 140.6 83% 76–75 ✗
Siena @ Rider -2.4 139.8 43% 59–61 ✗
Little Rock @ Morehead State -3.3 129.6 34% 76–62 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Florida International -3.5 137.9 35% 82–71 ✓
Marquette @ Creighton +0.9 142.1 53% 67–77 ✓
Radford @ Longwood +2.9 145.2 65% 71–69 ✗
Tulane @ North Texas +10.1 125.4 82% 66–76 ✓
Le Moyne @ Mercyhurst +4.2 145.2 72% 78–82 ✓
Providence @ Butler +5.5 143.2 72% 81–82 ✓
Milwaukee @ Cleveland State +0.9 138.7 55% 60–77 ✓
Canisius @ Merrimack +12.4 131.0 87% 51–69 ✓
Boston College @ Syracuse +6.6 149.1 79% 86–95 ✓
Texas A&M @ Missouri +4.0 143.0 64% 67–64 ✗
Rice @ Charlotte -0.8 140.9 45% 75–78 ✗
Florida @ Auburn +8.2 157.0 72% 90–81 ✗
Houston @ Colorado -13.7 132.3 13% 69–59 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Howard +0.9 156.8 63% 78–82 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Nicholls +11.1 138.5 86% 65–81 ✓
Pittsburgh @ North Carolina +3.2 154.5 62% 66–67 ✓
Rhode Island @ George Mason +8.3 138.6 81% 67–82 ✓
Murray State @ Valparaiso +0.2 145.1 54% 74–56 ✗
UNLV @ Wyoming -0.1 132.3 40% 68–57 ✓
New Mexico @ Air Force -18.1 147.6 11% 88–53 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Jackson State +22.4 137.3 90% 44–92 ✓
Penn State @ UCLA +8.6 143.3 81% 54–78 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Alcorn State +11.1 143.6 83% 60–79 ✓
Hampton @ Northeastern +5.3 141.7 72% 84–75 ✗
Towson @ Monmouth -3.5 136.4 32% 73–67 ✓
Stony Brook @ Hofstra +10.7 136.3 82% 80–75 ✗
Eastern Kentucky @ Stetson -8.1 155.5 25% 83–58 ✓
Tarleton State @ Utah Valley +13.6 135.0 87% 56–81 ✓
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ Denver -10.0 149.0 18% 79–76 ✓
Western Carolina @ UNC Greensboro +15.3 137.5 89% 70–74 ✓
Samford @ East Tennessee State +0.5 146.1 52% 59–66 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Tennessee Tech +6.0 140.7 74% 54–59 ✓
Sam Houston @ Liberty +13.5 141.4 87% 61–64 ✓
Grambling @ Alabama State +5.2 138.1 61% 77–67 ✗
New Orleans @ Houston Christian +8.9 144.3 80% 68–81 ✓
Furman @ Chattanooga +4.2 147.2 70% 72–85 ✓
Western Illinois @ UT Martin +6.9 135.1 71% 70–81 ✓
Lindenwood @ Tennessee State +5.1 149.2 74% 76–84 ✓
Texas State @ Central Michigan +1.9 145.1 61% 70–85 ✓
Utah @ West Virginia +6.2 132.3 75% 61–72 ✓
Wake Forest @ California -0.6 140.3 46% 76–66 ✓
Missouri State @ Belmont +7.7 148.6 78% 68–85 ✓
Southern @ Alabama A&M -9.8 148.8 17% 81–68 ✓
Northwestern State @ McNeese +14.4 133.0 87% 50–65 ✓
Sacramento State @ Idaho +9.0 140.7 74% 76–78 ✓
Portland State @ Eastern Washington -0.0 143.3 51% 67–72 ✗
Florida Gulf Coast @ North Florida -1.2 159.0 54% 84–70 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Austin Peay +5.6 141.9 71% 67–90 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Kennesaw State +0.5 144.8 53% 76–75 ✗
Western Kentucky @ Jacksonville State +4.1 144.8 72% 83–85 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Virginia +2.6 133.6 67% 61–75 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Prairie View A&M -3.5 149.8 32% 85–82 ✓
Mississippi State @ Georgia +2.7 143.5 62% 76–75 ✗
Illinois @ Minnesota -8.1 146.0 24% 95–74 ✓
BYU @ Cincinnati +1.7 140.5 55% 66–84 ✓
Florida A&M @ Texas Southern +4.6 143.0 66% 66–64 ✗
Loyola Chicago @ Duquesne +0.2 131.8 48% 56–69 ✓
Indiana State @ Drake +13.6 137.3 88% 81–85 ✓
Illinois State @ Northern Iowa +5.7 139.8 74% 65–68 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Stephen F. Austin -3.1 137.3 38% 64–78 ✗
SE Louisiana @ Incarnate Word +0.0 141.3 43% 71–66 ✗
Elon @ Charleston +3.9 144.2 70% 83–88 ✓
Pepperdine @ Washington State +8.8 150.3 81% 86–87 ✓
North Dakota @ Kansas City +3.5 141.7 65% 69–80 ✓
Duke @ Clemson -5.6 138.7 36% 71–77 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.