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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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79–36 on winners spread MAE 8.5 115 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Rice @ South Florida	+6.7	145.7	77%	73–81	✓
Dayton @ Duquesne	-1.5	140.0	40%	72–62	✓
Manhattan @ Rider	+7.3	143.6	74%	58–71	✓
Quinnipiac @ Marist	+0.7	136.1	52%	66–55	✗
Fairfield @ Niagara	-1.9	148.1	38%	72–96	✗
Siena @ Canisius	+14.0	142.8	90%	63–67	✓
Buffalo @ Akron	+15.5	141.8	90%	59–76	✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Robert Morris	-3.0	151.2	45%	88–91	✗
Stetson @ Queens University	-0.7	153.7	46%	84–66	✓
Jacksonville @ North Florida	+4.1	147.0	66%	74–82	✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Kennesaw State	+7.4	148.7	78%	75–78	✓
DePaul @ Villanova	+17.3	137.4	90%	69–94	✓
Wright State @ Youngstown State	+3.2	157.7	70%	71–81	✓
Nebraska @ Iowa	+3.8	159.9	69%	76–94	✓
Boise State @ Nevada	+5.9	137.6	73%	64–56	✗
Tennessee @ Georgia	-6.1	144.5	24%	85–79	✓
Syracuse @ North Carolina	+12.4	152.8	86%	67–103	✓
Northwestern @ Wisconsin	+9.6	133.5	82%	63–71	✓
NC State @ Louisville	-6.9	144.0	21%	89–83	✓
Towson @ Northeastern	-1.0	126.6	43%	59–67	✗
Seton Hall @ Butler	+3.9	142.7	66%	78–72	✗
Ohio @ Western Michigan	-0.1	150.5	49%	79–81	✗
Morehead State @ SIU Edwardsville	-5.4	134.3	30%	48–61	✗
VCU @ La Salle	-3.9	142.7	33%	71–65	✓
St. John's @ Creighton	+6.9	146.2	80%	65–66	✓
Presbyterian @ Gardner-Webb	+3.8	147.2	74%	60–76	✓
Stony Brook @ William & Mary	+0.1	144.3	49%	63–59	✗
Vanderbilt @ Ole Miss	+9.7	139.5	83%	56–69	✓
Stonehill @ Fairleigh Dickinson	+5.1	150.5	70%	74–81	✓
Eastern Michigan @ Miami (OH)	+7.6	144.9	78%	54–71	✓
Wofford @ The Citadel	-0.0	144.4	49%	72–71	✓
Northern Kentucky @ Detroit Mercy	-10.4	138.7	17%	81–76	✓
UMBC @ UMass Lowell	+13.5	156.0	86%	82–86	✓
Oklahoma @ Kansas	+4.4	143.3	77%	66–78	✓
Kentucky @ Texas A&M	+2.0	150.0	63%	92–97	✓
San Diego State @ New Mexico	+3.1	145.4	61%	70–88	✓
Virginia @ Wake Forest	+5.2	132.5	71%	47–66	✓
Bradley @ UIC	-3.9	132.7	32%	77–59	✓
Belmont @ Indiana State	+12.1	161.2	84%	64–94	✓
Radford @ Winthrop	+4.0	140.2	71%	88–92	✓
Longwood @ UNC Asheville	+0.6	143.1	63%	61–65	✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Charleston Southern	-0.8	141.2	47%	70–77	✗
Hofstra @ Campbell	-8.4	136.5	26%	68–69	✗
Xavier @ Providence	+3.6	141.9	69%	85–65	✗
Navy @ Lafayette	-0.0	129.5	41%	62–78	✗
Davidson @ George Washington	+0.7	145.6	53%	79–83	✓
Massachusetts @ Rhode Island	-3.7	148.7	35%	77–89	✗
Merrimack @ Le Moyne	-1.2	134.7	45%	66–62	✓
Long Island University @ Sacred Heart	+7.0	145.1	82%	55–89	✓
Kent State @ Central Michigan	-7.3	139.9	24%	62–77	✗
East Tennessee State @ Furman	+5.5	153.4	72%	73–82	✓
Western Carolina @ Mercer	-2.0	136.2	41%	64–52	✓
Oakland @ IU Indianapolis	-12.7	145.5	15%	88–66	✓
NJIT @ Vermont	+14.1	139.0	87%	55–76	✓
Houston Christian @ East Texas A&M	+8.5	145.1	75%	69–65	✗
Penn State @ Purdue	+16.1	156.4	89%	78–95	✓
Florida State @ Notre Dame	+0.1	137.5	49%	67–58	✗
Fordham @ St. Bonaventure	+8.7	141.4	83%	80–74	✗
Utah State @ UNLV	-2.6	141.5	38%	87–86	✓
Boston College @ Clemson	+8.3	150.8	78%	78–89	✓
South Dakota State @ Denver	+2.1	158.7	63%	80–99	✓
North Dakota @ Kansas City	+4.0	143.9	63%	82–69	✗
Seattle U @ UT Arlington	-1.3	143.9	48%	75–80	✗
South Carolina @ Missouri	+1.2	136.2	48%	71–69	✗
Colgate @ Bucknell	-4.4	133.8	32%	84–73	✓
Texas State @ UL Monroe	-3.9	129.5	34%	67–54	✓
Old Dominion @ Coastal Carolina	+0.1	147.1	50%	75–79	✓
Louisiana @ Arkansas State	+1.8	150.4	59%	84–77	✗
BYU @ UCF	-5.0	141.3	31%	63–58	✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Howard	+9.5	146.4	84%	61–72	✓
Kansas State @ Texas Tech	+6.4	141.0	76%	59–60	✓
SMU @ East Carolina	-7.4	132.7	28%	75–64	✓
Fresno State @ Wyoming	+4.5	137.3	71%	67–68	✓
Southern @ Florida A&M	-6.5	141.8	22%	74–65	✓
Army @ American University	+5.4	131.5	64%	60–79	✓
Arkansas @ Florida	+9.3	162.0	80%	68–90	✓
Loyola Chicago @ Saint Joseph's	+8.9	142.3	78%	78–75	✗
Central Connecticut @ Saint Francis	-4.2	133.8	31%	75–61	✓
Bowling Green @ Northern Illinois	+0.9	150.5	54%	83–72	✗
Southeast Missouri State @ Tennessee Tech	+6.1	144.4	72%	59–70	✓
South Alabama @ Marshall	+6.4	151.1	76%	91–85	✗
App State @ James Madison	+7.6	148.7	80%	59–55	✗
Binghamton @ UAlbany	+4.3	154.7	66%	75–95	✓
Incarnate Word @ Northwestern State	-2.4	141.9	40%	71–97	✗
Lamar @ Nicholls	+2.9	155.4	67%	78–76	✗
Grambling @ Bethune-Cookman	+3.9	132.8	62%	79–69	✗
Cal State Fullerton @ Cal State Northridge	+5.5	141.0	72%	71–76	✓
Monmouth @ Charleston	+10.0	147.1	84%	83–94	✓
Little Rock @ UT Martin	+3.3	162.8	72%	72–77	✓
Lindenwood @ Tennessee State	+9.2	140.9	83%	60–75	✓
Western Illinois @ Eastern Illinois	-0.9	131.8	31%	63–60	✓
Bellarmine @ Central Arkansas	-3.0	140.4	47%	57–59	✗
Georgia Tech @ Duke	+16.4	146.7	89%	79–84	✓
Alcorn State @ Alabama State	+4.2	143.7	73%	53–55	✓
Holy Cross @ Lehigh	+10.6	143.5	80%	69–66	✗
Boston University @ Loyola Maryland	-4.4	130.5	29%	60–58	✓
Southern Miss @ Troy	+5.3	149.4	75%	56–82	✓
Georgia Southern @ Georgia State	+8.6	148.4	82%	62–90	✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ New Orleans	-5.8	144.0	26%	80–83	✗
SE Louisiana @ McNeese	+12.1	131.0	84%	65–74	✓
Austin Peay @ Lipscomb	+8.3	140.2	81%	77–91	✓
Jacksonville State @ Western Kentucky	+1.9	135.5	63%	69–80	✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Davis	+11.1	137.3	86%	71–78	✓
Houston @ TCU	-3.8	131.6	30%	67–68	✗
Arizona @ Washington State	-9.4	149.7	29%	70–73	✗
LSU @ Auburn	+14.2	149.0	87%	78–93	✓
Texas @ West Virginia	-6.3	141.5	30%	73–76	✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Texas Southern	+8.1	150.1	74%	70–67	✗
Temple @ North Texas	+13.0	127.1	84%	51–69	✓
George Mason @ Richmond	+1.1	133.4	58%	70–77	✓
VMI @ Samford	+20.9	166.0	91%	96–134	✓
Jackson State @ Alabama A&M	-4.0	147.8	30%	75–67	✓
Sam Houston @ Middle Tennessee	-1.2	132.4	39%	60–51	✓
UTEP @ Florida International	+1.6	138.7	56%	68–72	✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Prairie View A&M	+15.4	131.4	89%	60–71	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.