Betting Lines
| Spread | CCSU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | SFPA +250 CCSU -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFPA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CCSU +14 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | CCSU -5.1 (-8.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.4 (+1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CCSU -4.2 (-9.8) | 133.8 (+2.2) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CCSU -5.2 (-8.8) | 134.3 (+1.7) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CCSU -4.6 (-9.4) | 135.8 (+0.2) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CCSU -4.9 (-9.1) | 134.0 (+2.0) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | CCSU 69 – 64 SFPA |
| Jan 17, 2026 | CCSU 98 – 90 SFPA |
| Mar 11, 2025 | SFPA 46 – 43 CCSU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | CCSU 83 – 67 SFPA |
| Jan 4, 2025 | CCSU 74 – 59 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFPA | CCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-22 | 20-11 |
| Conference | 3-13 | 13-3 |
| Home | 6-8 | 11-4 |
| Away | 2-14 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.2 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 68.3 |
| Massey | -12.3 (#339) | -3.2 (#232) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.24 (#335) | -0.74 (#246) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.32 (#347) | -1.19 (#264) |
| RPI | 0.375 (#349) | 0.463 (#239) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFPA | CCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.6% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.4% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 22.8% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 65.1% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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