Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Over |
| Money | DEN +170 SDST -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEN +19 | 179 | Won |
| Massey | DEN -4.5 (+14.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.4 (+11.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEN -2.1 (+16.9) | 158.7 (+20.3) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEN -2.2 (+16.8) | 159.5 (+19.5) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DEN -2.1 (+16.9) | 161.5 (+17.5) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEN -2.9 (+16.1) | 161.0 (+18.0) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | DEN 79 – 61 SDST |
| Jan 9, 2026 | SDST 87 – 79 DEN |
| Mar 1, 2025 | DEN 78 – 62 SDST |
| Jan 3, 2025 | SDST 91 – 70 DEN |
| Mar 13, 2024 | SDST 76 – 68 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEN | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 12-4 |
| Home | 10-4 | 11-3 |
| Away | 4-11 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 5-5 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.5 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.1 | 72.0 |
| Massey | 1.8 (#137) | 1.4 (#146) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#195) | 0.04 (#173) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#191) | -0.03 (#182) |
| RPI | 0.477 (#220) | 0.509 (#156) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEN | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 29.6% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.9% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.9% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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