Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | LOU +240 NCSU -333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +6 | 172 | Lost |
| Massey | NCSU -5.9 (-0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.0 (+23.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -6.5 (+0.5) | 145.2 (+26.8) | 24% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -6.9 (+0.9) | 144.0 (+28.0) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -7.5 (+1.5) | 147.0 (+25.0) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -6.3 (+0.3) | 145.2 (+26.8) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 10, 2026 | LOU 118 – 77 NCSU |
| Feb 13, 2025 | LOU 91 – 66 NCSU |
| Mar 12, 2024 | NCSU 94 – 85 LOU |
| Dec 23, 2022 | NCSU 76 – 64 LOU |
| Jan 13, 2022 | NCSU 79 – 63 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-24 | 26-15 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 9-11 |
| Home | 7-11 | 12-5 |
| Away | 1-10 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 10-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L8 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.1 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#222) | 7.3 (#75) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#267) | 1.88 (#45) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.15 (#261) | 2.32 (#50) |
| RPI | 0.451 (#259) | 0.559 (#84) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 12.5% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 30.2% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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