We are not monsters, we're moral people / And yet we have the strength to do this. "Nemesis" - Shriekback
Atlantic Coast Conference · Lenovo Center · February 13, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread LOU -7.5 Away covered
O/U 144.5 Over
Money NCSU +270 / LOU -340
Model Predictions
Spread Total NCSU win
Actual LOU +25 157 Lost
Massey LOU -7.4 (-17.6)
Massey Totals 141.2 (+15.8)
Bradley-Terry 8%
Weighted B-T 6%
Baseline Plus ML LOU -6.5 (-18.5) 138.9 (+18.1) 24%
Model 4 ML LOU -4.5 (-20.5) 143.6 (+13.4) 33%
Model 3 ML LOU -7.2 (-17.8) 139.1 (+17.9) 25%
Baseline ML LOU -7.0 (-18.0) 139.3 (+17.7) 26%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 10, 2026 LOU 11877 NCSU
Mar 12, 2024 NCSU 9485 LOU
Jan 13, 2024 NCSU 8983 LOU
Dec 23, 2022 NCSU 7664 LOU
Jan 13, 2022 NCSU 7963 LOU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings NCSU LOU
Overall 12-19 27-8
Conference 5-15 18-2
Home 12-6 14-3
Away 0-11 9-2
Neutral 0-2 4-3
Last 5 0-5 4-1
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 69.6 78.5
Avg Pts Against 70.4 69.5
Massey 5.1 (#98) 15.6 (#28)
Bradley-Terry -0.17 (#189) 2.80 (#21)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.12 (#163) 3.49 (#27)
RPI 0.469 (#234) 0.621 (#19)
Shooting & Four Factors NCSU LOU
FG% 43.4% 44.2%
3PT% 31.9% 32.2%
REB / G 32.5 38.5
OREB / G 10.4 12.2
AST / TO 1.32 1.31
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 48.5% 52.3%
TOV% 14.1% 15.8%
ORB% 29.4% 33.8%
FT Rate 23.2% 25.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.7% 50.4%
Opp TOV% 19.1% 19.0%
DRB% 67.0% 74.1%
Opp FT Rate 22.9% 18.6%

Game Analysis

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