Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | NCSU +270 LOU -340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +25 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | LOU -7.4 (-17.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.2 (+15.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -7.2 (-17.8) | 139.1 (+17.9) | 25% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -4.5 (-20.5) | 143.6 (+13.4) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -6.5 (-18.5) | 138.9 (+18.1) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -7.0 (-18.0) | 139.3 (+17.7) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 10, 2026 | LOU 118 – 77 NCSU |
| Mar 12, 2024 | NCSU 94 – 85 LOU |
| Jan 13, 2024 | NCSU 89 – 83 LOU |
| Dec 23, 2022 | NCSU 76 – 64 LOU |
| Jan 13, 2022 | NCSU 79 – 63 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 18-2 |
| Home | 12-6 | 14-3 |
| Away | 0-11 | 9-2 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 78.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 69.5 |
| Massey | 5.1 (#98) | 15.6 (#28) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.17 (#189) | 2.80 (#21) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.12 (#163) | 3.49 (#27) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#234) | 0.621 (#19) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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