Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -18.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | NCSU -2000 LOU +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +12 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | NCSU -27.9 (-15.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (-2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -20.4 (-8.4) | 144.9 (-4.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -18.3 (-6.3) | 147.1 (-7.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -22.8 (-10.8) | 145.9 (-5.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -22.8 (-10.8) | 144.7 (-4.7) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 10, 2026 | LOU 118 – 77 NCSU |
| Feb 13, 2025 | LOU 91 – 66 NCSU |
| Mar 12, 2024 | NCSU 94 – 85 LOU |
| Jan 13, 2024 | NCSU 89 – 83 LOU |
| Jan 13, 2022 | NCSU 79 – 63 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 4-28 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 2-18 |
| Home | 15-2 | 4-13 |
| Away | 4-6 | 0-11 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 63.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 75.8 |
| Massey | 10.9 (#41) | -12.2 (#346) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.71 (#48) | -2.66 (#343) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.30 (#53) | -2.43 (#327) |
| RPI | 0.574 (#57) | 0.407 (#320) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 39.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 0.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 44.9% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 23.7% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 24.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 17.7% |
Game Analysis
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