Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Over |
| Money | LOU -325 NCSU +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +41 | 195 | Won |
| Massey | LOU -5.2 (+35.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.6 (+30.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -6.1 (+34.9) | 159.3 (+35.7) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -7.8 (+33.2) | 157.3 (+37.7) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -7.0 (+34.0) | 157.0 (+38.0) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -5.6 (+35.4) | 159.1 (+35.9) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2025 | LOU 91 – 66 NCSU |
| Mar 12, 2024 | NCSU 94 – 85 LOU |
| Jan 13, 2024 | NCSU 89 – 83 LOU |
| Dec 23, 2022 | NCSU 76 – 64 LOU |
| Jan 13, 2022 | NCSU 79 – 63 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 10-8 |
| Home | 15-2 | 11-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.3 | 83.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 76.3 |
| Massey | 20.7 (#11) | 18.5 (#22) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.84 (#29) | 2.54 (#34) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.70 (#28) | 3.20 (#36) |
| RPI | 0.607 (#31) | 0.607 (#32) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 40.2% |
| REB / G | 40.3 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 1.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 57.1% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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