Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -6.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | LOU -260 NCSU +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +16 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | LOU -8.4 (-24.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.0 (-5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -6.9 (-22.9) | 146.6 (-4.6) | 76% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -7.2 (-23.2) | 146.9 (-4.9) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -6.5 (-22.5) | 148.5 (-6.5) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -7.2 (-23.2) | 147.8 (-5.8) | 76% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 10, 2026 | LOU 118 – 77 NCSU |
| Feb 13, 2025 | LOU 91 – 66 NCSU |
| Mar 12, 2024 | NCSU 94 – 85 LOU |
| Jan 13, 2024 | NCSU 89 – 83 LOU |
| Dec 23, 2022 | NCSU 76 – 64 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 4-16 |
| Home | 8-8 | 7-10 |
| Away | 2-10 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 75.6 |
| Massey | 6.1 (#91) | 1.5 (#135) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.34 (#71) | -0.04 (#183) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.58 (#83) | 0.11 (#172) |
| RPI | 0.588 (#48) | 0.487 (#198) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 76.0% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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