Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | NCSU -500 LOU +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +9 | 179 | Won |
| Massey | NCSU -9.5 (-0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.3 (+27.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -8.5 (+0.5) | 146.1 (+32.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -10.4 (-1.4) | 145.9 (+33.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -7.9 (+1.1) | 146.6 (+32.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -8.3 (+0.7) | 146.1 (+32.9) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 10, 2026 | LOU 118 – 77 NCSU |
| Feb 13, 2025 | LOU 91 – 66 NCSU |
| Jan 13, 2024 | NCSU 89 – 83 LOU |
| Dec 23, 2022 | NCSU 76 – 64 LOU |
| Jan 13, 2022 | NCSU 79 – 63 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-15 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 3-17 |
| Home | 12-5 | 7-11 |
| Away | 4-7 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 10-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 79.1 |
| Massey | 7.6 (#74) | -1.9 (#195) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.29 (#80) | -0.68 (#242) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.53 (#85) | -0.60 (#224) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#140) | 0.435 (#302) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 29.8% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 29.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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