Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | TROY -175 USM +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +26 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | TROY -7.2 (+18.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.1 (-12.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -5.3 (+20.7) | 149.4 (-11.4) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -5.0 (+21.0) | 147.2 (-9.2) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -5.0 (+21.0) | 147.4 (-9.4) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -4.6 (+21.4) | 149.4 (-11.4) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | TROY 78 – 70 USM |
| Feb 15, 2026 | USM 69 – 65 TROY |
| Jan 15, 2026 | TROY 91 – 65 USM |
| Mar 1, 2025 | TROY 70 – 58 USM |
| Jan 27, 2025 | TROY 70 – 61 USM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 9-9 |
| Home | 15-2 | 11-3 |
| Away | 5-9 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 72.9 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#179) | -3.7 (#239) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#208) | 0.23 (#158) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#186) | -0.11 (#189) |
| RPI | 0.491 (#193) | 0.507 (#159) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 30.1% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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