Betting Lines
| Spread | GAST -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | GAST -300 GASO +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GAST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GAST +28 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | GAST -12.6 (+15.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.0 (+1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GAST -8.6 (+19.4) | 148.4 (+3.6) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GAST -9.9 (+18.1) | 150.2 (+1.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GAST -9.9 (+18.1) | 150.9 (+1.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GAST -9.8 (+18.2) | 149.8 (+2.2) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | GAST 66 – 64 GASO |
| Dec 19, 2025 | GASO 90 – 67 GAST |
| Mar 6, 2025 | GAST 80 – 71 GASO |
| Mar 1, 2025 | GASO 76 – 75 GAST |
| Jan 9, 2025 | GAST 82 – 78 GASO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GAST | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 9-24 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 8-10 |
| Home | 9-5 | 6-7 |
| Away | 5-11 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.4 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.4 | 79.2 |
| Massey | -1.4 (#193) | -9.9 (#320) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.06 (#182) | -2.23 (#334) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.15 (#192) | -2.39 (#322) |
| RPI | 0.496 (#180) | 0.381 (#344) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GAST | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 17.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 62.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.3% | 29.8% |
Game Analysis
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