Betting Lines
| Spread | AKR -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | AKR -2500 BUF +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AKR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AKR +17 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | AKR -22.7 (-5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.5 (-5.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AKR -15.5 (+1.5) | 141.8 (-6.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AKR -16.0 (+1.0) | 142.4 (-7.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AKR -17.3 (-0.3) | 143.8 (-8.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AKR -16.4 (+0.6) | 141.4 (-6.4) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | AKR 73 – 70 BUF |
| Feb 25, 2026 | AKR 99 – 85 BUF |
| Jan 20, 2026 | AKR 82 – 63 BUF |
| Mar 8, 2025 | AKR 88 – 70 BUF |
| Jan 22, 2025 | AKR 90 – 58 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AKR | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 4-27 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 2-16 |
| Home | 13-1 | 2-13 |
| Away | 7-6 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 79.6 |
| Massey | 5.9 (#90) | -12.7 (#343) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.33 (#77) | -3.15 (#355) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.77 (#76) | -3.72 (#349) |
| RPI | 0.580 (#58) | 0.382 (#342) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AKR | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 25.9% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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