Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | UNCA -150 LONG +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +4 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | UNCA -0.7 (+3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.9 (-17.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -0.6 (+3.4) | 143.1 (-17.1) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -1.9 (+2.1) | 141.6 (-15.6) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -1.4 (+2.6) | 142.3 (-16.3) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -1.2 (+2.8) | 145.8 (-19.8) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | UNCA 85 – 82 LONG |
| Feb 13, 2026 | UNCA 79 – 74 LONG |
| Jan 7, 2026 | UNCA 72 – 61 LONG |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UNCA 87 – 82 LONG |
| Jan 9, 2025 | LONG 85 – 76 UNCA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 12-4 | 6-10 |
| Home | 12-2 | 13-3 |
| Away | 5-7 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 70.2 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#188) | 2.2 (#128) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.35 (#146) | 0.36 (#145) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#152) | 0.18 (#162) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#139) | 0.505 (#161) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 36.3% |
| FT Rate | 33.3% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.5% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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