Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | AUB -1400 LSU +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +15 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -16.6 (-1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.8 (+21.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -13.4 (+1.6) | 150.3 (+20.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -14.2 (+0.8) | 149.0 (+22.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -13.0 (+2.0) | 150.1 (+20.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -12.9 (+2.1) | 148.8 (+22.2) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | AUB 88 – 74 LSU |
| Jan 30, 2025 | AUB 87 – 74 LSU |
| Jan 19, 2023 | AUB 67 – 49 LSU |
| Dec 30, 2021 | AUB 70 – 55 LSU |
| Feb 20, 2021 | LSU 104 – 80 AUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 9-9 |
| Home | 15-1 | 12-6 |
| Away | 5-5 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.1 | 76.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 75.0 |
| Massey | 18.3 (#7) | 5.8 (#93) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.58 (#21) | 1.09 (#89) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.33 (#20) | 1.67 (#79) |
| RPI | 0.632 (#17) | 0.523 (#135) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 40.7 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.83 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.8% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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