Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | AUB -535 LSU +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +14 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -6.5 (+7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.1 (-2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -7.2 (+6.8) | 160.7 (+1.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -6.4 (+7.6) | 158.7 (+3.3) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -6.7 (+7.3) | 157.0 (+5.0) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -6.3 (+7.7) | 157.8 (+4.2) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2025 | AUB 87 – 74 LSU |
| Jan 13, 2024 | AUB 93 – 78 LSU |
| Jan 19, 2023 | AUB 67 – 49 LSU |
| Dec 30, 2021 | AUB 70 – 55 LSU |
| Feb 20, 2021 | LSU 104 – 80 AUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-16 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 3-15 |
| Home | 14-4 | 9-8 |
| Away | 2-8 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | W5 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.0 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.8 | 78.5 |
| Massey | 14.0 (#40) | 10.5 (#56) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.95 (#49) | 1.17 (#83) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.80 (#43) | 1.75 (#73) |
| RPI | 0.577 (#50) | 0.520 (#129) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.7 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 38.6% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 34.4% | 31.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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