Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +15 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | LSU -0.3 (+15.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.7 (-11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -0.8 (+14.2) | 144.4 (-19.4) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -1.6 (+13.4) | 142.2 (-17.2) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -1.3 (+13.7) | 137.6 (-12.6) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -2.1 (+12.9) | 135.3 (-10.3) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | AUB 88 – 74 LSU |
| Jan 30, 2025 | AUB 87 – 74 LSU |
| Jan 13, 2024 | AUB 93 – 78 LSU |
| Jan 19, 2023 | AUB 67 – 49 LSU |
| Feb 20, 2021 | LSU 104 – 80 AUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-6 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 9-9 |
| Home | 16-0 | 15-2 |
| Away | 8-3 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.2 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 63.4 |
| Massey | 17.6 (#10) | 22.2 (#2) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.44 (#8) | 4.56 (#2) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.46 (#13) | 6.67 (#3) |
| RPI | 0.680 (#4) | 0.679 (#5) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 42.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 35.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.6% | 40.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.7% | 27.0% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 17.3% |
Game Analysis
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