Betting Lines
| Spread | LSU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 166.5 Over |
| Money | LSU -188 AUB +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LSU +24 | 184 | Won |
| Massey | LSU -6.4 (+17.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.3 (+17.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LSU -6.2 (+17.8) | 158.8 (+25.2) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LSU -4.8 (+19.2) | 157.1 (+26.9) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LSU -6.3 (+17.7) | 159.4 (+24.6) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LSU -6.6 (+17.4) | 159.9 (+24.1) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | AUB 88 – 74 LSU |
| Jan 30, 2025 | AUB 87 – 74 LSU |
| Jan 13, 2024 | AUB 93 – 78 LSU |
| Jan 19, 2023 | AUB 67 – 49 LSU |
| Dec 30, 2021 | AUB 70 – 55 LSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LSU | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-10 | 13-14 |
| Conference | 11-6 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-2 | 8-5 |
| Away | 4-6 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.8 | 77.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 76.4 |
| Massey | 13.3 (#26) | 9.3 (#60) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.12 (#45) | 1.21 (#78) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.74 (#40) | 1.88 (#70) |
| RPI | 0.603 (#28) | 0.540 (#100) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LSU | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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