Betting Lines
| Spread | WCU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | MER +163 WCU -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WCU +12 | 116 | Lost |
| Massey | WCU -3.1 (-8.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.9 (-21.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WCU -2.0 (-10.0) | 136.2 (-20.2) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WCU -1.9 (-10.1) | 137.5 (-21.5) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WCU -2.2 (-9.8) | 139.0 (-23.0) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WCU -2.9 (-9.1) | 138.5 (-22.5) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | WCU 77 – 73 MER |
| Feb 26, 2026 | WCU 78 – 74 MER |
| Jan 22, 2026 | MER 88 – 76 WCU |
| Mar 7, 2025 | MER 67 – 66 WCU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MER 81 – 69 WCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 22-10 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-6 | 12-3 |
| Away | 4-9 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 69.8 |
| Massey | -3.3 (#234) | 3.9 (#113) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.50 (#230) | 1.85 (#48) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.00 (#246) | 1.98 (#69) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#238) | 0.571 (#70) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 17.7% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 12.5% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.5% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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