Betting Lines
| Spread | UML -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Over |
| Money | UML -1600 UMBC +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UML win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UML +4 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | UML -17.4 (-13.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.2 (+4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UML -13.5 (-9.5) | 156.0 (+12.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UML -12.4 (-8.4) | 152.8 (+15.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UML -13.6 (-9.6) | 153.0 (+15.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UML -13.3 (-9.3) | 156.0 (+12.0) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2026 | UMBC 91 – 69 UML |
| Feb 28, 2026 | UMBC 84 – 60 UML |
| Jan 24, 2026 | UMBC 79 – 56 UML |
| Feb 20, 2025 | UML 98 – 79 UMBC |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UML 83 – 67 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UML | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-10 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 6-10 |
| Home | 12-3 | 6-9 |
| Away | 10-7 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 78.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 81.2 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#125) | -10.4 (#325) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#96) | -2.61 (#345) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.24 (#101) | -3.19 (#342) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#138) | 0.353 (#359) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UML | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 33.4% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 16.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.9% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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