Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | TCU +130 HOU -167 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TCU +1 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -6.7 (+7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.6 (-1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -3.8 (+4.8) | 131.6 (+3.4) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -4.1 (+5.1) | 133.7 (+1.3) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -3.4 (+4.4) | 134.4 (+0.6) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -4.1 (+5.1) | 135.0 (+0.0) | 33% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | HOU 79 – 70 TCU |
| Jan 7, 2025 | HOU 65 – 46 TCU |
| Mar 14, 2024 | HOU 60 – 45 TCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TCU | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 32-5 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 15-3 |
| Home | 12-4 | 17-0 |
| Away | 6-5 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 8-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.0 | 73.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 57.6 |
| Massey | 13.4 (#24) | 24.1 (#2) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.31 (#29) | 3.42 (#4) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.84 (#31) | 4.54 (#1) |
| RPI | 0.560 (#83) | 0.640 (#14) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TCU | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.3% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 40.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 15.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 35.7% | 41.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 40.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.9% | 27.3% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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