Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | HOU -4000 TCU +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +19 | 111 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -19.4 (-0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.2 (-13.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -14.5 (+4.5) | 125.3 (-14.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -15.1 (+3.9) | 127.9 (-16.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -14.9 (+4.1) | 125.7 (-14.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -15.1 (+3.9) | 128.1 (-17.1) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | HOU 79 – 70 TCU |
| Mar 14, 2024 | HOU 60 – 45 TCU |
| Jan 13, 2024 | TCU 68 – 67 HOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-5 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 19-1 | 9-11 |
| Home | 16-1 | 14-3 |
| Away | 10-0 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 9-4 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.6 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 23.9 (#3) | 8.6 (#66) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.33 (#41) | 0.79 (#110) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.43 (#32) | 1.04 (#103) |
| RPI | 0.610 (#35) | 0.528 (#119) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 41.4% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 37.3% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.1% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.2% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
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