Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | TCU +340 HOU -440 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +9 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | HOU -5.3 (-3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.0 (+10.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -2.2 (-6.8) | 135.7 (+13.3) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -4.1 (-4.9) | 136.3 (+12.7) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -3.6 (-5.4) | 136.4 (+12.6) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -4.0 (-5.0) | 137.3 (+11.7) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 7, 2025 | HOU 65 – 46 TCU |
| Mar 14, 2024 | HOU 60 – 45 TCU |
| Jan 13, 2024 | TCU 68 – 67 HOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TCU | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 30-7 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 14-4 |
| Home | 14-5 | 15-1 |
| Away | 5-5 | 6-3 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 9-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.4 | 76.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 62.3 |
| Massey | 12.4 (#44) | 20.8 (#10) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.89 (#53) | 3.81 (#12) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.93 (#43) | 4.97 (#9) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#88) | 0.635 (#18) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TCU | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 1.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 13.0% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 38.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 23.3% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 26.5% |
Game Analysis
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