He just grinned and shook my hand, "No" was all he said. "The Weight" - The Band
Ohio Valley Conference · Kathleen and Tom Elam Center · January 13, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread UTM -2.5 Home covered
O/U 172.5 Under
Money UTM -125 / LR +130
Model Predictions
Spread Total UTM win
Actual UTM +5 149 Won
Massey UTM -5.5 (-0.5) — —
Massey Totals — 179.5 (-30.5) —
Bradley-Terry — — 75% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 71% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ UTM -3.3 (+1.7) 162.8 (-13.8) 72% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML UTM -4.0 (+1.0) 162.9 (-13.9) 69% ✓
Baseline ML UTM -4.4 (+0.6) 165.0 (-16.0) 73% ✓
Baseline Plus ML UTM -4.1 (+0.9) 165.2 (-16.2) 71% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 20, 2026 LR 67 – 65 UTM
Feb 4, 2026 UTM 55 – 52 LR
Mar 7, 2025 LR 82 – 77 UTM
Feb 1, 2025 LR 75 – 57 UTM
Jan 3, 2025 LR 57 – 56 UTM

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UTM LR
Overall 21-11 21-13
Conference 14-4 14-4
Home 12-2 14-4
Away 9-7 6-6
Neutral 0-2 1-3
Last 5 2-3 2-3
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 79.5 77.3
Avg Pts Against 77.9 72.5
Massey -4.0 (#243) -5.4 (#268)
Bradley-Terry -0.81 (#254) -1.17 (#281)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.06 (#251) -1.14 (#260)
RPI 0.460 (#247) 0.403 (#324)
Shooting & Four Factors UTM LR
FG% 43.4% 45.0%
3PT% 36.8% 32.5%
REB / G 40.2 36.2
OREB / G 10.0 12.2
AST / TO 1.04 1.16
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.4% 50.6%
TOV% 16.0% 16.7%
ORB% 25.6% 32.6%
FT Rate 20.6% 27.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.4% 52.5%
Opp TOV% 13.6% 18.1%
DRB% 72.2% 67.8%
Opp FT Rate 20.8% 30.9%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.