Betting Lines
| Spread | UTM -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 172.5 Under |
| Money | UTM -125 LR +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTM +5 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | UTM -5.5 (-0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 179.5 (-30.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTM -3.3 (+1.7) | 162.8 (-13.8) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTM -4.0 (+1.0) | 162.9 (-13.9) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTM -4.4 (+0.6) | 165.0 (-16.0) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTM -4.1 (+0.9) | 165.2 (-16.2) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | LR 67 – 65 UTM |
| Feb 4, 2026 | UTM 55 – 52 LR |
| Mar 7, 2025 | LR 82 – 77 UTM |
| Feb 1, 2025 | LR 75 – 57 UTM |
| Jan 3, 2025 | LR 57 – 56 UTM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTM | LR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 14-4 |
| Home | 12-2 | 14-4 |
| Away | 9-7 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.5 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -4.0 (#243) | -5.4 (#268) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.81 (#254) | -1.17 (#281) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#251) | -1.14 (#260) |
| RPI | 0.460 (#247) | 0.403 (#324) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTM | LR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.6% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 30.9% |
Game Analysis
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