Betting Lines
| Spread | MRSH -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | MRSH -200 USA +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRSH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +6 | 176 | Lost |
| Massey | MRSH -7.2 (-13.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.6 (+25.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRSH -5.0 (-11.0) | 150.7 (+25.3) | 74% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | MRSH -6.4 (-12.4) | 151.1 (+24.9) | 76% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | MRSH -5.9 (-11.9) | 146.5 (+29.5) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MRSH -5.5 (-11.5) | 146.6 (+29.4) | 74% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | MRSH 84 – 80 USA |
| Feb 14, 2025 | USA 91 – 82 MRSH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRSH | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 8-10 |
| Home | 8-7 | 11-6 |
| Away | 3-9 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 75.9 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#206) | -5.1 (#264) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.03 (#179) | -0.47 (#227) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.03 (#175) | -0.64 (#228) |
| RPI | 0.494 (#189) | 0.467 (#236) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRSH | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 40.1 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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