Betting Lines
| Spread | MRSH -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | MRSH -270 USA +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRSH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRSH +4 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | MRSH -4.9 (-0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.0 (+14.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRSH -3.5 (+0.5) | 147.6 (+16.4) | 63% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | MRSH -3.4 (+0.6) | 147.2 (+16.8) | 68% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | MRSH -3.5 (+0.5) | 146.3 (+17.7) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRSH -3.5 (+0.5) | 147.2 (+16.8) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2025 | USA 91 – 82 MRSH |
| Jan 13, 2024 | USA 91 – 85 MRSH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRSH | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-7 |
| Home | 13-4 | 10-4 |
| Away | 6-8 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.5 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.9 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#164) | -2.1 (#201) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#136) | 0.54 (#111) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.09 (#160) | 0.48 (#127) |
| RPI | 0.544 (#82) | 0.533 (#103) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRSH | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 13.2% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 24.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.2% | 16.7% |
Game Analysis
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