Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | ARST -110 UL +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +7 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | ARST -3.4 (-10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.4 (+10.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -1.8 (-8.8) | 150.4 (+10.6) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -2.4 (-9.4) | 147.3 (+13.7) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -2.4 (-9.4) | 149.0 (+12.0) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -2.6 (-9.6) | 151.6 (+9.4) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | ARST 81 – 58 UL |
| Feb 20, 2026 | ARST 79 – 62 UL |
| Feb 27, 2025 | ARST 83 – 64 UL |
| Jan 17, 2025 | ARST 83 – 63 UL |
| Mar 9, 2024 | ARST 89 – 62 UL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | UL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-17 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-3 | 11-3 |
| Away | 5-11 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#175) | 0.3 (#162) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.50 (#231) | -0.13 (#190) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.53 (#221) | -0.00 (#177) |
| RPI | 0.462 (#242) | 0.495 (#182) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | UL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 63.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.7% | 29.5% |
Game Analysis
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