Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | UNLV +110 USU -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +1 | 173 | Lost |
| Massey | USU -3.5 (+2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.2 (+24.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -2.6 (+1.6) | 141.5 (+31.5) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -1.8 (+0.8) | 142.7 (+30.3) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -1.8 (+0.8) | 143.0 (+30.0) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -2.1 (+1.1) | 143.5 (+29.5) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | USU 80 – 60 UNLV |
| Mar 4, 2026 | UNLV 92 – 65 USU |
| Jan 21, 2026 | UNLV 86 – 76 USU |
| Mar 14, 2025 | USU 70 – 58 UNLV |
| Jan 30, 2025 | USU 76 – 71 UNLV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 28-7 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 14-4 |
| Home | 12-5 | 14-1 |
| Away | 8-4 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 78.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 5.8 (#94) | 13.3 (#27) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.55 (#130) | 3.16 (#6) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.85 (#119) | 3.48 (#16) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#97) | 0.671 (#3) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 49.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 29.1% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 65.5% | 76.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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