Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | UNM -175 SDSU +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +18 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | UNM -3.0 (+15.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.6 (+7.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -3.1 (+14.9) | 145.4 (+12.6) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -1.9 (+16.1) | 144.8 (+13.2) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -2.3 (+15.7) | 144.8 (+13.2) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -2.1 (+15.9) | 147.4 (+10.6) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | SDSU 64 – 62 UNM |
| Feb 28, 2026 | UNM 81 – 76 SDSU |
| Jan 18, 2026 | SDSU 83 – 79 UNM |
| Feb 26, 2025 | SDSU 73 – 65 UNM |
| Jan 11, 2025 | UNM 62 – 48 SDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-10 | 26-11 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 11-7 |
| Home | 13-3 | 14-1 |
| Away | 5-6 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.8 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 67.4 |
| Massey | 12.3 (#31) | 13.3 (#26) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.75 (#57) | 2.98 (#13) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.02 (#67) | 3.60 (#12) |
| RPI | 0.602 (#34) | 0.666 (#4) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 29.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.7% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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