Virgil Cain is my name and I served on the Danville train. "The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down"-The Band
Northeast Conference · Bogota Savings Bank Center · January 13, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread FDU -6.5 Home covered
O/U 154.5 Over
Money FDU -300 / STO +250
Model Predictions
Spread Total FDU win
Actual FDU +7 155 Won
Massey FDU -7.4 (-0.4) — —
Massey Totals — 153.2 (+1.8) —
Bradley-Terry — — 87% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 88% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ FDU -5.1 (+1.9) 150.5 (+4.5) 70% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML FDU -4.4 (+2.6) 146.2 (+8.8) 69% ✓
Baseline ML FDU -4.7 (+2.3) 144.9 (+10.1) 65% ✓
Baseline Plus ML FDU -5.0 (+2.0) 148.0 (+7.0) 68% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 6, 2026 FDU 74 – 58 STO
Jan 30, 2026 STO 58 – 57 FDU
Mar 6, 2025 FDU 71 – 56 STO
Feb 28, 2025 FDU 82 – 69 STO
Jan 26, 2025 FDU 65 – 54 STO

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings FDU STO
Overall 15-17 4-27
Conference 9-7 2-14
Home 7-7 4-8
Away 8-9 0-19
Neutral 0-1 0-0
Last 5 0-5 1-4
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 73.3 63.5
Avg Pts Against 78.4 76.1
Massey -11.4 (#333) -14.7 (#349)
Bradley-Terry -1.80 (#323) -2.97 (#351)
W. Bradley-Terry -2.58 (#329) -3.74 (#351)
RPI 0.396 (#331) 0.394 (#333)
Shooting & Four Factors FDU STO
FG% 40.9% 39.0%
3PT% 31.3% 30.5%
REB / G 35.1 32.6
OREB / G 10.9 8.3
AST / TO 1.07 0.78
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 47.4% 46.0%
TOV% 17.6% 19.4%
ORB% 27.3% 22.2%
FT Rate 22.9% 16.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 54.0% 52.2%
Opp TOV% 18.4% 16.9%
DRB% 66.1% 65.1%
Opp FT Rate 23.6% 20.4%

Game Analysis

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