Betting Lines
| Spread | FDU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | FDU -300 STO +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FDU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FDU +7 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | FDU -7.4 (-0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.2 (+1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FDU -5.1 (+1.9) | 150.5 (+4.5) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FDU -4.4 (+2.6) | 146.2 (+8.8) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FDU -4.7 (+2.3) | 144.9 (+10.1) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FDU -5.0 (+2.0) | 148.0 (+7.0) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2026 | FDU 74 – 58 STO |
| Jan 30, 2026 | STO 58 – 57 FDU |
| Mar 6, 2025 | FDU 71 – 56 STO |
| Feb 28, 2025 | FDU 82 – 69 STO |
| Jan 26, 2025 | FDU 65 – 54 STO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FDU | STO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 4-27 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 2-14 |
| Home | 7-7 | 4-8 |
| Away | 8-9 | 0-19 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 63.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.4 | 76.1 |
| Massey | -11.4 (#333) | -14.7 (#349) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.80 (#323) | -2.97 (#351) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.58 (#329) | -3.74 (#351) |
| RPI | 0.396 (#331) | 0.394 (#333) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FDU | STO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 39.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 22.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 16.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 66.1% | 65.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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